Alert!
Côte
d'Ivoire Crisis: WANEP
Policy Briefs Update - December 3, 2002
Worst
case scenario
Lager scale
hostilities resume. The MPCI and the MJP-MPIGO come into an understanding
and form an alliance that extends to the LURD and the Guinean rebellion.
It becomes evident that the truce was just a ploy to respect the Muslim
Ramadan season and win the support and/or sympathy of the Muslim community.
Violence erupts after Ramadan. The Dans (Yacoubas, late General Gueď
tribesmen) heed to the call by the western front rebellion leadership
and rise against the Bétés (Gbagbo's tribe). An ethnic war of proximity
begins. The rebels over-power the government forces and Abidjan falls
into rebel hands.
