WARN
Policy Brief - Liberia
June
4, 2003
The
Last Straw for Peace or Total Anarchy
Stakeholders Analysis
Stakeholders
in conflict are those with direct or indirect interest in the conflict. They may
either directly benefit or suffer the consequences of the conflict. National,
regional, international stakeholders are said to be behind the civil war in Liberia.
As negotiations continue this week WARN finds it necessary to shed light on the
current stakeholders in the Liberian conflict, their power bases, interests, and
alliances. The primary stakeholders are the government, rebel factions, political
parties, and civil society organizations.
Movement
for Democracy in Liberia (MODEL)
MODEL
is a breakaway faction of LURD. MODEL is dominated by the Krahn ethnic group of
the late Samuel Kanyon Doe. Many of the Krahn elements in MODEL have committed
grave human rights abuses during their leadership in Liberia. Any attempt to establish
a Special Court in Liberia could be rejected by this group. Their interest in
politics now is less compared to their desire to return to Liberia. The Krahn
elements are aware that popular acceptance of their rule is unthinkable in Liberia
at least in the immediate future.
The We of Cote d'Ivoire and President Laurent Gbagbo fully back the MODEL. The
We in Cote d'Ivoire is the ethnic cousin of the Krahn in Liberia. President Gbagbo
allegedly promised the MODEL conduit to Liberia if they helped him ward off rebellion
against his government. Also, given the support of Charles Taylor to the Western
rebellion of MPIGO President Gbagbo feels justified to support MODEL in retaliation
against Charles Taylor. Demands of MODEL in the peace talks may be less as the
Krahns desperately seek to endear themselves once again to the international community,
especially the United States of America. Pressure on Gbagbo to withdraw support
from MODEL could greatly reduce MODEL's power base.
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