WARN
Policy Brief - Liberia
June
4, 2003
The
Last Straw for Peace or Total Anarchy
Stakeholders Analysis
Stakeholders
in conflict are those with direct or indirect interest in the conflict. They may
either directly benefit or suffer the consequences of the conflict. National,
regional, international stakeholders are said to be behind the civil war in Liberia.
As negotiations continue this week WARN finds it necessary to shed light on the
current stakeholders in the Liberian conflict, their power bases, interests, and
alliances. The primary stakeholders are the government, rebel factions, political
parties, and civil society organizations.
Government
of Charles Taylor
The
government of Charles Taylor is desperate to hold on to power for a number of
reasons. Foremost is the government's unpopularity with the international community
and the President's indictment. The President's only hope is a presidential immunity.
Current political legitimacy is running out. Come October the government would
be a de facto one. If it is possible to hold general elections under present conditions
the Government would opt for that. The government has argued strongly against
the recognition of the LURD and LURD-MODEL. It has said that by recognizing armed
rebellions in West Africa the region could encourage the proliferation of rebellions
against democratic government, although President Taylor is supporting a number
of insurgent groups against democratically elected governments in the region and
that the President himself came to power through unconstitutional and pseudo democratic
means.
The
Taylor government has given in to negotiation with LURD and LURD-MODEL because
the government has lost control of large part of the country and that its forces
have weakened considerably. Additionally, the government is finding it difficult
to purchase arms due to the armed embargo and significant reduction in its resource
base. The Oriental Timber Company (OTC) which was Taylor's major source of income
has pulled out.
Also,
pressure from the international community has become overwhelming. The presence
of an international stabilization force that would work side-by-side the national
security forces may be Taylor's initial compromise. With the indictment Taylor
would only allow an international stabilization force if he would be responsible
for his own security. Now the President is playing his usual tactics. He announced
that he would only allow a stabilization force that would be led by the United
States. The President suspects that the US may be careful to send their soldiers
to Liberia while Charles Taylor is in power. They want to avoid the bitter experience
of Somalia. To get out of harms way Charles Taylor may move back to Gbarnga, his
stronghold.
Recent
pressure from the United States has reduced Taylor's chances significantly to
manipulate the process. He may be willing to go into exile just to safe his skin.
Taylor is strategically connected in the region. His generous support to some
key governments and some elements in these governments has won him powerful friends
in the region.
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