WANEP’s Next Strategic Direction: 2015 - 2020

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Policy Brief on Côte d'Ivoire:- Elections 2015 en Côte d'Ivoire: entreprendre la reforme electorale ou replonger dans la crise?

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I INTRODUCTION
Le difficile apprentissage de la démocratie dans les pays de l’Afrique au Sud du Sahara provoque des crises ouvertes qui emmènent de plus en plus de citoyens lambda à se demander si la démocratie est le régime qui convient à ces pays. Cette question évidemment peut se poser lorsque l’on ne compare pas suffisamment les progrès enregistrés au niveau des questions de droits humains. Comme le disait
Bernard Stiegler, philosophe français : «Onnepeutpasparlersérieusementde ladémocratiesil'onn'estpascapable d'envisager que d'autres modèles politiques que ceux de la démocratie sont possibles ».
En effet, la liberté d’expression et d’opinion acquise, le contrôle citoyen exercé la séparation même relative des pouvoirs des dirigeants aujourd’hui et surtout les alternances réalisées dans certains pays, devraient nous permettre de constater que des progrès ont été réalisés dans le domaine de la gouvernance politique
Notre pays, la Côte d’Ivoire est un exemple de l’évolution décrite ci- dessus. En effet, depuis 1989 .........

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Quarterly Early Warning Brief (GHANA): January - March, 2014

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Quarterly Early Warning Brief: January - March, 2014 : (PDF - 680KB)

Policy Brief on Guinea Bissau: - Ending the Vicious Cycle of Instability in Guinea Bissau: What Next After 2014 Elections?

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  I. INTRODUCTION
The political history of Guinea Bissau has been characterized by multiple coups d’état and assassinations of some presidents since independence in 1974: three presidents were overthrown, one assassinated and one died due to illness in office. Drug trafficking spanning over a decade has further exacerbated the instability of the country and also accounts for the power struggles and deterioration of relations between the army and political elites.
In 2010, Malam Bacai Sanha was elected into office following a coup d’état in March 2009 that ousted the then democratically elected president Nino Vieira. Following the death of President Sanha in January 2012, Raimundo Pereira took over as interim president to facilitate new elections within 90 days as stipulated in the constitution. However, two weeks to the presidential election run-off, the army staged a coup on April 12 truncating the interim government. Interim President Raimundo Pereira and outgoing Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Junior were arrested and detained by the army on allegations of “secret deal” with Angolan troops to wipe out the Guinea Bissau army , plunging the country into further turmoil.

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Policy Brief on Nigeria: - Nigeria’s 2015 General Elections: Crumbling or Consolidating Democracy?

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   1. Introduction
In 2015 Nigerians will go to the polls to elect their next president, state governors and legislators. The elections will mark the fifth multiparty elections in Nigeria since the return of democracy in 1999 following about 16 years of military dictatorship. Even amidst skirmishes and complains of electoral fraud, the previous elections in 2011 were described by both international and local observers as the most successful the country has ever had and this has raised expectations of further progress and improvement in the electioneering process. However, the optimism for the consolidation of democracy through improved electoral process is seemingly being challenged, by a peevish political and security landscape in the lead-up to 2015.

The political and security crescendos in Nigeria at the moment is a major reason the 2015 general elections is a source of concern to both local and international analysts. Data from WANEP-Nigeria National Early Warning System (NEWS) shows an average of 400 deaths per month for the last six months. Topping the charts of the causes of deaths are issues of insurgencies especially the activities of radical ethno-religious groups that have been trying to dismember the North East and North Central parts of the country recording over 2,800 deaths in March 2014 alone from either the attackers or the security operative’s responses.

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Policy Brief on Burkina Faso: - Burkina Faso's Test of Resilience and Democratic Stability – The 2015 Political Dynamics and Drifts

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1. Introduction
With the renaming of Upper Volta to Burkina Faso in 1984, the concept of the “Land of Upright People” set forth a new promise for political stability and economic prosperity. Those hopes and aspirations were amplified with the ushering in of democratic rule over the past 15 years. This is now tested as the country prepares for elections in 2015. On January 18 2014, over 10,000 Burkinabe’s rallied in the nation’s capital, Ouagadougou, and other cities to protest what they consider to be the centralization of political power in the presidency since 1987. Underpinning the protests were allegations of moves by the President to alter the current constitutional provisions (particularly article 37) in order to contest elections in 2015 when his tenure would be ending. This provision, incorporated in 2000, limits the president to two five-year terms. Although President Compaore has issued no official statement nor made any comments concerning his intention to seek another term in office, his critics contend that he is laying the groundwork for a constitutional amendment to extend his rule beyond 2015.

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