Alert!

Côte d'Ivoire Crisis: WANEP Policy Briefs(2)

Analysis

News that the MPCI had over-run Daloa and the government determination to flush the rebels out was very significant for the following reasons:

• It marked a turning point in the conflict. Daloa is situated in the heart of Bété land, the hometown of President Gbagbo. Capturing Daloa was like stabbing President Gbagbo at his heart by cutting off his tribal power base. This strategy seems calculated, with an intention to psychologically weaken the President's legitimacy by alienating him from the population, although he remains the constitutional and legal leader of Côte d'Ivoire.
  
  
• Secondly, taking over Daloa meant control over cocoa warehouses at a time the conflict has occasioned the soaring of cocoa prices in the world market. Daloa is at the center of the cocoa belt, a crop that has given Côte d'Ivoire the pride of leadership in world production, with an annual tonnage of about 1.25 million tons (40 percent of world production).
  
  
• Thirdly, capturing Bétéland could well be a calculated strategy to assure the hundreds of migrant labourers, who are on their feet for fear of government persecution (as the anti-immigrant/northerner sentiments continue to mount), that their lives will be protected by those who claim to be fighting their cause.
  
  
• Fourthly, Daloa is a strategic military town-fourth most important after Abidjan, Bouaké, and Yamoussoukrou. It is probable that the MPCI wants to secure an outlet into the sea. From Daloa, they could easily link to the port towns of Sassandra, San Pedro and Tabou. Access to the sea would guarantee easy flow of military and logistic supplies. If this happens, one goal of the civil uprising-economic control-would have been met. One wonders whether negotiation would not be complicated and difficult with this expanded power base on the part of the rebels.